At the Avocado Congress 2026 in Madrid, ProHass president José Antonio Castro said Peru's avocado sector is stress-testing its supply projections against an El Niño scenario modeled on 2023, which caused a 10% volume drop in 2024. The forecast for 2026–2027 is expected to be more severe, and Castro said a more accurate estimate won't be available until March or April. Peru accounts for roughly 42% of Europe's annual avocado supply and up to 85% during the June-to-August window.
Colombia's situation is also worth watching: Corpohass president Katheryn Mejía said Colombian exports have already fallen 30% this year compared to 2025, with around 90,000 tons shipped so far. If El Niño hits in mid-October as expected, the main impact would be smaller fruit sizes during the harvest running through February. On the logistics side, a new port is cutting transit time from growing regions to under 10 hours.
For North American buyers who source avocados from Peru or Colombia, this is a forward-looking supply risk story. The El Niño impact on Peru's avocado crop won't be clear for months, but the trajectory being discussed by industry leaders suggests meaningful volume pressure in the second half of 2027.