The ProduceIQ Index hit $1.42 per pound for Week 43, up 7 percent over the prior week, as multiple commodities spiked simultaneously. Strawberry prices jumped 30 percent week over week as California heat followed by rain accelerated production decline. Tomato supplies remain extremely limited — round types up 23 percent, plum types up 17 percent, and grape types up 9 percent — with no meaningful relief expected until South Georgia and Florida growers ramp up. Watermelon prices hit a ten-year high as the domestic-to-Mexico transition stalled, while green onion prices remain well above average despite beginning to come down.
This is a broad-based market disruption, not a single-commodity story. California weather is the through-line: the shift from October heat to rain is compressing supply across multiple categories at once, and freight rates sitting above year-ago levels are adding to delivered cost pressure. Tomato relief is expected to come from Florida and Georgia, but timing is uncertain.
Watch for further strawberry price movement as California wind-down accelerates into November. Buyers managing holiday tomato programs should monitor the Florida and South Georgia ramp-up closely — any further weather delays there will keep the current price environment in place longer than expected.