Michoacán wrapped its 2025/26 avocado season with total production running 27% below the prior year, according to new data. Despite that shortfall, the state still exported over 85% of its production to the United States, totaling 1.25 million tonnes — a figure described as a record-breaking season for U.S. avocado imports.
The juxtaposition is significant: even a sharply down year in Michoacán translated into record U.S. import volumes, highlighting just how dominant the region is in supplying the American market. This season played out against a backdrop of USDA inspection suspensions, security monitoring requirements, and ongoing calls from California growers for seasonal import caps.
Heading into the new season, the 27% production decline is a key data point for anyone forecasting avocado pricing and availability. If Michoacán's next crop faces similar headwinds — weather, security, or regulatory friction — supply tightening and price pressure could come faster than expected.