Colombia's banana industry is projecting a nearly 20% productivity decline after a punishing stretch of weather in 2026. Flooding has hit more than 2,965 acres of banana farms, while severe windstorms have damaged over 7,413 acres, according to a joint release from the country's two major grower associations, AUGURA and ASBAMA. The losses are prompting industry leaders to push for fairer pricing from international buyers.
Colombia is a meaningful supplier to global banana markets, and the timing is complicated by a strengthening El Niño forecast — Colombia's national weather institute is assigning a 75% probability that the phenomenon will reach an intensity not seen in recent decades. That raises the risk of lower rainfall and increased water stress in the months ahead, compounding an already difficult situation for a sector that supports more than 200,000 direct jobs.
While Europe takes the majority of Colombian banana exports, any sustained production shortfall from a major origin country is worth tracking for North American buyers — especially given that banana supply math is already tightening heading into November. Watch whether El Niño escalation in Colombia translates into broader supply pressure across sourcing regions.