Mexican avocado volume coming into the U.S. is running about 20% short of projections, according to Aaron Acosta of Villita Avocados. That gap is big enough to undermine confidence in running summer promotions, which require reliable supply commitments that growers and shippers can't currently make with confidence.
This is a meaningful reversal from earlier this year, when Mexican avocado exports were hitting record highs and prices were dropping with the volume. The current shortfall is creating uncertainty heading into peak demand season — Memorial Day, Fourth of July, and the broader summer grilling window when avocado sales historically spike.
Retailers and category managers who were banking on aggressive avocado ad programs this summer may need to recalibrate. With supply unpredictable through at least the end of the season, expect pricing pressure and potential gaps in promotional execution.