The U.S. lemon market has undergone a dramatic reversal. Until about five to six weeks ago, supply was short — frost events earlier this year hit Turkey hard, Spanish production was limited, and other origins ended their seasons early. Then supply came flooding in, and the market has swung to oversupply.
The speed of the shift highlights just how quickly lemon dynamics can change when multiple origins transition simultaneously. Buyers who locked in supply during the tight window are now sitting in a very different market, while those who waited are finding more availability than expected. This kind of volatility can squeeze margins fast for shippers who are now moving product in a softer pricing environment.
Watch for promotional opportunities in lemons in the near term as the market works through excess supply. The question is how long the oversupply lasts before seasonal demand picks back up or import flows normalize.