Mexico's table grape season just wrapped one of its worst years in memory. Two consecutive years of low rainfall and abnormal heat prevented vines from entering proper dormancy, cutting yields on some varieties to 2,000 boxes per hectare — well below the typical 2,500–3,000. Total volume came in around 16.5 million boxes, with Flame dropping from 8 million boxes in past seasons to just 3.7 million, and Early Sweet falling from roughly 4 million to 2.8 million.
The compressed harvest — just 12 weeks versus the typical 14–16 — created a timing problem that hurt Mexican growers in the market. Because the season ran earlier than normal, Chilean and Peruvian shipments were still flowing into the U.S. when Mexican fruit arrived, creating direct supply overlap and intensifying competition. Growers responded by pivoting more volume to the domestic Mexican market, shifting away from the historical ~90% U.S. export ratio.
With green varieties now making up nearly 60% of Mexican production and Sonora growers still working to restore normal yield levels, watch for continued tightness in early-season Mexican volume heading into 2027. If El Niño conditions persist, a third consecutive difficult year is worth monitoring for buyers who rely on Mexican supply to bridge the South American-to-California transition window.