South American avocado exports have reached record volumes, marking a significant milestone for the region's industry. However, the surge is happening alongside growing concern about climate volatility, as shifting weather patterns and seasonal import concentrations are creating instability in the broader market.
The North American avocado market has been heavily reliant on South American supply — particularly Peru and Colombia — to complement Mexican volumes during certain windows. Record export numbers can depress prices and complicate inventory management, while the climate risk layer adds uncertainty to how long this volume surge can be sustained.
With El Niño already flagged as a threat to Peruvian citrus blossom and broader ag output, worth monitoring whether the same weather patterns begin to crimp avocado supply later in the season. Category managers pricing forward should factor in the potential for a sharp volume correction.