USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service forecasts California table grape production at 1.15 million tons in 2026, up 10% from 2025 and 13% above the 2022–24 average. This would be the third consecutive year of volume growth, continuing the recovery from 2023 when Hurricane Hilary's remnants pushed output below 1 million tons for the first time since 2009. The fresh-market share, if it matches last year's 84%, would translate to roughly 964,000 tons of fresh fruit entering domestic supply.
The context matters: while table grapes are growing, total California grape production has fallen 40% from its 2013 peak as wine-type and raisin-type fruit shrinks. Table grapes now account for about a quarter of the state's entire grape crop. The variety is becoming a more dominant part of what California sends to market.
For category managers and buyers, the supply picture for California table grapes looks meaningfully stronger than recent seasons — at the same time that Peru is running short. That dynamic, with California volume up and Peruvian supply down, is worth tracking as the handoff between domestic and import programs approaches.