USDA retail ad data for week 37 shows white seedless grapes in 2 lb containers are priced 51% higher year-over-year — the largest commodity price jump in the weekly report. Honeydews and Bartlett pears are each up 23%, and cantaloupes are up 11%. On the flip side, Navel oranges (3 lb bags) are down 37%, blackberries are down 15%, and avocados are down 10%.
The grape pricing spike lines up with the broader California table grape situation: a challenging August, early-season supply tightness, and higher transportation costs are all compounding at retail. The timing is notable given the Rosh Hashanah and National Hispanic Heritage Month promotional windows this week, both of which drive concentrated demand for grapes and other key commodities.
For category managers building weekly ad programs, the divergence between grape and citrus pricing is a meaningful planning signal. Navel orange promotions may offer better value positioning this week, while grape promotional activity will likely require tighter margin management given where FOB prices are sitting.