Peru's blueberry industry association Proarándanos has revised its full-season export forecast down to 366,000 metric tons — 4.2% below its September estimate and 4.4% below actual 2025/26 volumes. The revision comes despite Peru having 15% more production hectares than last season, meaning additional acreage is failing to offset weather-driven yield losses. El Niño conditions, warmer temperatures, smaller berry sizes, and accelerated crop development are all being cited as causes.
The early season looked strong — through week 38, cumulative shipments were up 18.7% year-over-year. But week 39 alone came in 39% below the same week last year, signaling a sharp inflection. Proarándanos now expects approximately 108,000 metric tons of exports over the next eight weeks, compared with 156,000 metric tons during the same stretch last year — a 31.2% decline. Rather than a peak, the industry is forecasting a plateau averaging roughly 13,500 metric tons per week.
For U.S. buyers, this tightening Peruvian supply arrives just as Chilean blueberries are ramping up — Chile is projecting a 2% volume increase this season with improved genetics. Worth monitoring whether Chilean fruit can adequately fill the gap, especially given Chile's own weather challenges and the 12.5% U.S. tariff surcharge on Chilean blueberries.