Brazil is headed toward a record Hass avocado harvest, with planted acreage expanding dramatically from roughly 2,500 acres to as much as 27,000 acres by the end of this year. Year-to-date export volumes are already surging, establishing Brazil as a rapidly growing player in the global Hass supply picture.
This is a significant long-term development for North American avocado buyers. Mexico and Peru have dominated Hass supply, but Brazil's scale-up means a third major origin is entering the picture in a serious way. That changes supply dynamics, creates new competition for shelf space, and may introduce additional price pressure on the market.
California growers already facing pressure from Mexican import volumes now have another potential headwind to track. Worth monitoring how quickly Brazilian fruit begins appearing in U.S. retail programs and at what price points.