Weather experts are forecasting this El Niño cycle to be the strongest in 75 years, posing a serious threat to banana production across Latin America. The risks break down by region: Ecuador and Peru face above-normal rainfall and flooding that could accelerate disease spread — including Fusarium TR4 and Black Sigatoka — while drier regions may see reduced fruit size and lower bunch weights from insufficient irrigation. Colombia has already seen more than 3,000 acres flooded earlier this year, affecting export availability even before the anticipated El Niño conditions take hold.
In a worst-case scenario, losses could reach 1.36 million metric tons — equivalent to roughly 75 million boxes — according to Fairtrade America's Desson. Growers in Peru are investing in soil resilience practices like biochar and compost, while Ecuador has launched an open-source climate monitoring platform to help producers track rainfall and disease risk in real time. These are meaningful preparation steps, but they cannot fully offset large-scale weather events.
This is a slow-moving but high-stakes situation worth tracking closely heading into Q4 and early 2027. Buyers with long-term banana programs in Ecuador or Colombia especially should be pressure-testing supply continuity with their partners now.