Grocery prices increased for the fifth consecutive month in 2026, and forecasters warn that a powerful El Niño weather pattern could sustain upward price pressure well into 2028. The sustained monthly increases reflect ongoing cost pressures across the food supply chain, not a single-event spike.
Five consecutive months of grocery price increases is a macro story with direct produce implications. El Niño's documented effects on growing regions — from Peru and Chile to California and the Southeast — make it a compounding risk for fresh produce specifically. Buyers already navigating tight supply on lemons, cherries, and stone fruit now have a longer-duration inflation outlook to factor into planning.
The 2028 horizon is worth flagging for longer-term program conversations. If El Niño conditions persist as forecast, growers, shippers, and buyers may need to revisit multi-season contract assumptions sooner than expected.