A new Rabobank report takes a close look at the shifting North American avocado landscape, highlighting a market where demand keeps growing but price sensitivity among consumers is becoming a real constraint. Supply is rising, organic volume is expanding, and policy changes — including the new tariff structure — are adding new variables to an already dynamic category.
This comes on the heels of several recent developments: California growers have been squeezed by import competition, Brazil's Hass crop is on track for a record, and Mexico's current crop is running small due to flor loca sizing issues. The Rabobank analysis appears to synthesize these dynamics into a broader market outlook worth reading for anyone managing the category.
For avocado buyers and category managers, the combination of abundant supply, smaller sizing from Mexico, and rising price sensitivity creates a tricky promotional environment heading into late summer. Worth monitoring how organic pricing holds relative to conventional as total supply builds.