CDFA and USDA released their initial 2026/27 California Navel Orange Objective Measurement Report on September 11, putting the forecast at 84 million cartons — up 4 million from last year's estimate and exceeding last year's final production by about 2 million cartons. Bearing acreage is estimated at 109,000 acres with a yield of 771 cartons per acre. Average fruit set is up 3% year over year, though average diameter is down slightly.
The mandarin forecast came in at 38 million 40-lb cartons for Tango and W. Murcott Afourer varieties — up 5 million cartons from last year. Bearing acreage is estimated at 36,000 acres. Fruit set is down 2% but diameter is up slightly, and yield is estimated at 1,056 cartons per acre.
This is a constructive setup for buyers heading into fall and winter citrus programs. California Navel season is expected to start earlier than usual this year, with the bloom having been extremely early. Worth watching how Southern Hemisphere mandarin imports currently in the market transition out and how promotional opportunities develop once California volume ramps up.