Fresh produce prices in Canada have been growing faster than the headline CPI for several months, with fresh fruit seeing particularly sharp year-over-year increases. Economists point to a combination of factors: Canada imports a large share of its fresh produce, meaning currency weakness gets passed through almost immediately. Higher oil prices — now above $100 per barrel — also hit fresh produce transportation costs faster than other categories because of perishability and speed requirements.
Weather is layering on additional pressure. El Niño conditions are expected to tighten supply from key California growing regions, and drought conditions have already been a factor this season. The FAO flagged in August that climate shocks, geopolitical tensions, and disrupted logistics are converging to tighten global supply expectations.
Relief is not expected soon. Economists forecast that energy prices will remain elevated given ongoing conflict in the Middle East, and the climate dimension is described as more persistent than the geopolitical one. Canadian buyers and importers should factor continued price pressure into near-term category planning.