El Niño conditions are strengthening off the California coast, with unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures and higher-than-normal tides already being observed in Ventura County. Researcher David Holden flags December through February as the critical window, with moisture from the Hawaiian region potentially bringing substantial rainfall to coastal growing areas. Strawberries are among the crops most vulnerable to excessive precipitation during winter months.
California's reservoirs are currently in good shape at 70–80% capacity, which reduces wildfire risk but doesn't insulate growers from flooding or harvest disruption if rainfall is intense. Ventura County lemon growers are already dealing with a depressed market and scaling back crop protection applications, making additional weather stress particularly unwelcome. The broader West Coast produce supply chain, including Salinas leafy greens and Oxnard strawberries, could face disruptions if the wet season arrives aggressively.
This is worth monitoring closely over the next 60 days. Buyers who source California winter strawberries, lettuce, or other tender crops should be building contingency sourcing plans and staying in close contact with their growing partners about field conditions.