Brazil's Fundecitrus has pegged the 2026/27 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais belt at 255.2 million boxes — a 12.9% drop from the prior season. That region is the country's primary producing area and the backbone of global orange juice supply.
Brazil is the dominant supplier of orange juice to North American and global markets, so a meaningful crop reduction there has direct implications for OJ pricing and, more broadly, for fresh citrus supply balances heading into the Northern Hemisphere's off-season. This follows an already challenging citrus landscape in Florida, which has been in long-term structural decline.
Category managers sourcing citrus or OJ-adjacent products should watch how this crop estimate evolves — if the final harvest comes in at or below forecast, pricing pressure through the back half of 2026 is a real possibility.