Rising input costs are dragging down farmer sentiment, with the capital investment index falling to its lowest reading since September 2024. Caution is the dominant mood, with growers pulling back on spending as costs remain elevated and market uncertainty persists.
This is a meaningful signal for the supply side of produce. When growers aren't investing in equipment, infrastructure, or expansion, it can translate into slower capacity growth, deferred technology adoption, and potentially reduced output over time. It also reflects the cumulative pressure growers are facing from tariffs, fuel, labor, and input costs.
For buyers and category managers, declining grower confidence is worth watching as an early indicator of potential supply constraints in future seasons — particularly in categories already dealing with tight production.