Panama Canal traffic has recovered enough to drive a 17% revenue increase, but the waterway is facing looming restrictions tied to the return of El Niño, which previously caused significant draft limitations and shipping delays. The timing matters — U.S. import volumes have been running at record highs as importers rush product ahead of new tariffs.
For the fresh produce industry, the Canal is a critical artery for fruit moving from South America — Ecuador bananas, Peruvian blueberries and asparagus, Chilean grapes and stone fruit all pass through. Any return to transit restrictions would add lead time, cost, and uncertainty to those supply chains at a moment when they're already stretched.
This is an early warning worth flagging. If El Niño restrictions materialize in the second half of 2026, buyers relying on South American imports should be thinking about lead time buffers and alternate routing options now.