El Niño conditions have damaged mango blossoms in Peru's key growing regions, with yields potentially falling by up to 60% for the upcoming season. The Peruvian season is set to begin in Piura during week 40 — the first week of October — before moving to Lambayeque and then Casma, where harvest is expected to run through early 2027.
Peru is a critical supplier of mangoes to North American markets during the fall and winter window when domestic U.S. supply is essentially zero. A shortfall of this magnitude would tighten supply significantly just as seasonal demand picks up, likely pushing prices higher and forcing buyers to look at alternative sourcing regions.
This comes on top of already-reported record July heat damaging mango flowering in Piura specifically. Buyers planning Q4 mango programs should be building contingency sourcing conversations now — this is worth monitoring closely as harvest gets closer and volume estimates firm up.