Five Crowns Marketing's Daren Van Dyke says asparagus supply is down over 100,000 units year-to-date compared to last year in their current growing region alone. The problems are stacking: a warmer-than-normal winter in Caborca, Mexico cut early-season production; extended heat in southern Baja hurt quality and yields more recently; and Peru has been dealing with Super El Niño conditions for months. The result is fruit that comes out seedy, starts to feather, and has limited salvageable volume.
Hurricane Polo added another wrinkle last week. Growers are reporting some short-term delays and damage, but the longer-term concern is how the storm affected crop timing. In Mexico, growers force dormancy by cutting water rather than relying on freezes — so any disruption to that cycle can shift when product actually comes to market, potentially pulling volume out of planned windows like December.
Cooler fall temperatures should help supply and quality improve in the near term, and retail demand picking up should take some pressure off the market. But with Super El Niño conditions ongoing in Peru, the supply picture heading into winter remains uncertain. Buyers with asparagus programs built on either Baja or Peruvian origin should watch volume updates closely over the next few weeks.