Climate scientists are warning that a potentially strong El Niño event could develop between now and July, raising the risk of drought, extreme heat, wildfires, and significant crop losses. Climate scientist Daniel Swain described the upcoming event as having a high chance of becoming strong to very strong, with global agricultural implications.
This is a forward-looking supply risk that goes well beyond previously covered El Niño disease concerns for Florida strawberries. A strong to very strong event would have broad consequences for major growing regions across the U.S. West, Mexico, and key import origins — potentially affecting multiple commodity categories simultaneously during the second half of 2026.
This is worth monitoring closely as a macro risk factor across the entire produce portfolio. If the event develops as projected, sourcing strategies, promotional calendars, and inventory buffers for fall and winter commodities may all need revisiting.