The Peruvian Avocado Commission now expects Peru to ship about 140 million pounds to the U.S. in 2026, down sharply from an initial forecast of 200 million pounds. The cause is straightforward: Mexico delivered over 3 billion pounds to the U.S. market this year — a volume the sector had been projecting for 12 years — keeping prices depressed for virtually the entire season. Some retailers scaled back earlier volume commitments from Peru as a result.
Mexico supplied 82–83% of U.S. avocados this year, with California accounting for around 10% and Peru and Colombia splitting the remainder. PAC chairman Xavier Equihua described prices as "very low compared to Europe" throughout the season, making the math difficult for Peruvian exporters who compete on a premium positioning.
Looking ahead, El Niño poses a real risk to Peru's 2027 avocado volumes. Equihua noted a reduction is coming, with uncertainty around how severe it will be. Buyers who rely on Peruvian supply windows as a complement to Mexican off-peak periods should watch developing weather forecasts closely.