A new sectoral report from Grupo Cibest shows Colombia's banana industry achieved record production and export levels in 2025, with productivity reaching an all-time high. However, the report warns that El Niño during the second half of 2026 poses a meaningful threat to continued growth, with potential impacts on yields and export volumes from one of the key banana-supplying countries for the North American market.
Colombia is a significant source of bananas for U.S. and Canadian importers, alongside Ecuador and Guatemala. El Niño-related weather disruptions — including drought and irregular rainfall — can stress banana plantations, reduce bunch weights, and slow harvest cycles. The report's warning about the second half of 2026 means the risk window is opening now.
With the banana market already under pressure from rising logistics costs and tightening margins — a trend covered previously — any El Niño-driven supply reduction from Colombia could add upward price pressure on a category that retailers have historically used as a loss leader. Worth monitoring as the season progresses.