Mexican tomato exports are forecast to decline 7% as antidumping duties continue to squeeze producers financially. A strengthening currency is compounding the pain by making exports less competitive, and potential climate volatility tied to a developing Super El Niño adds another layer of uncertainty to the season's outlook.
This story builds on the broader disruption already reshaping the Mexican tomato trade. U.S. antidumping duties have already been linked to a 9% drop in Mexican tomato acreage, and this new export forecast confirms the supply contraction is accelerating. For buyers who rely heavily on Mexican product, the pipeline is getting meaningfully thinner.
Watch for further price pressure at retail as Mexican volumes tighten heading into the second half of the year. Any El Niño-related weather disruption to key growing regions like Sinaloa or Sonora could push the supply situation from tight to critically short — worth monitoring closely as summer progresses.