The U.S. grape market is facing a notable supply gap heading into the Fourth of July. Mexico is on track to produce around 16 million boxes of table grapes this season — well short of the typical 20 million — leaving a 4-million-box deficit at a time when California fruit is not yet widely available. Industry sources describe the current mid-June shortage as rare.
California's San Joaquin Valley harvest has technically begun, but volume is still building. The gap between Mexico winding down and California scaling up is wider than usual this year, which is putting upward pressure on prices and limiting promotional options for retailers.
Watch for California supply to bridge the gap heading into early July, but expect tight availability and firm pricing in the near term. Buyers running summer promotions on grapes may need to manage expectations on volume and cost.