The American Pecan Council's March 2026 data shows shipments fell 21 percent year-over-year, while receipts dropped 40 percent month-over-month to 31.6 million pounds. At the same time, inventories are building — a combination that points to softening demand rather than a supply problem.
Pecans have faced headwinds from tariff uncertainty, particularly with China, which has historically been a major export destination. When export channels tighten, domestic inventory backs up and prices can soften, which creates ripple effects across the nut and snack category.
Buyers in the nut and produce-adjacent space should watch whether this inventory buildup translates into promotional pricing opportunities or signals a longer demand slump heading into the back half of the marketing year.