State-level SNAP waivers restricting purchases of soda, candy, and energy drinks could result in $830 million in lost sales for those categories by end of 2026, according to new Numerator research. One-third of all SNAP participants are expected to be subject to these restrictions before the year is out as more states seek and receive waivers. This is a major structural shift in how government food assistance dollars get spent.
For the produce industry, this is a real demand opportunity. When SNAP dollars can no longer go toward junk food, a portion of that spending has to go somewhere — and fresh fruits and vegetables are a natural beneficiary, especially if retailers and programs actively guide participants toward produce. The food-as-medicine momentum is clearly building, with payment companies already launching specialized grocery cards for health-focused purchases.
Buyers and category managers should be thinking about how their stores are positioned to capture redirected SNAP spending. End caps, signage, and partnerships with health-focused SNAP programs could matter a lot more in the back half of 2026. This is one of the clearer near-term demand tailwinds for fresh produce right now.