Oil prices have climbed back above $100 a barrel as drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and escalating Houthi activity in the Middle East threaten global energy supplies. For produce, that translates directly into higher fuel, transportation, and shipping costs at a time when margins are already thin. The ProduceIQ Index hit $1.26 per pound for week 37, up 3% over the prior week.
The pain isn't evenly distributed. Sweet potato prices swung from a 10-year low to a 10-year high in a single week as old crop nears end of life and new crop cures. Blueberry prices are up 58% week-over-week as the Northwest season ends and Peru ramps up. Cauliflower hit a 10-year high on heat and insect pressure. Grape-type tomato prices rose 35% in one week, driven by heat and rain damage in Southern growing regions.
Watch transportation costs closely over the next several weeks — if oil stays above $100, the freight premium will compound already elevated commodity prices heading into fall. Buyers sourcing from distant regions or relying on spot trucks will feel this most acutely.