NOAA's National Weather Service has officially declared El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific and issued an advisory. Forecasters are predicting the event strengthens to moderate or strong levels by fall, with a 63% probability that sea surface temperatures in the monitored zone reach very strong thresholds.
El Niño events reshape weather patterns across key North American growing regions — drought in some areas, excess moisture in others. California, Arizona, and key Mexican production zones for tomatoes, avocados, and leafy greens can all be meaningfully affected. This advisory comes as the industry is already managing stacked supply disruptions across multiple categories.
Watch for this to become a dominant planning factor heading into Q4. Buyers and category managers sourcing from California's Central Valley, Salinas, or Mexican growing states like Sinaloa and Sonora should start stress-testing supply scenarios now — even a moderate event could amplify existing volatility.