Bell pepper pricing crashed this summer — Canadian greenhouse supply was so strong that 11-lb. red bells traded as low as $2–$3. But conditions are shifting fast. Canadian supply is tightening as the season winds down, California's Central Valley is wrapping up, and Coachella is just getting started with green peppers, with reds not until mid-November. Mexico's season typically doesn't kick in until just before Christmas, and this year's rains have delayed planting and replanting schedules, raising the real possibility of a shortage around the holidays.
Industry observer Paul Manfre of Top Katz LLC expects 11-lb. red pepper pricing to settle in the $15–$16 range FOB, with elongated reds in the $20s and bushels around $30. That's a dramatic swing from summer lows and reflects the compressed supply window between CA close and Mexico ramp-up.
Retailers relying on bell peppers for holiday promotions or feature pricing should be building contingency plans now. If Mexico's delayed planting extends the gap between CA and Mexico supply, buyers could face both tighter volume and sharply higher costs through December.