Peru's blueberry industry is forecasting a 40% growth in exports for 2026, driven by expanding production capacity and strong global demand. However, the country's agricultural authorities have flagged that the estimate is provisional, warning that high weather volatility — specifically the emerging El Niño — has made it difficult to generate a reliable forecast.
Peru has become the dominant global source of blueberries during the fall and winter windows in North America, so any significant deviation from this projection would have real shelf consequences. A 40% volume jump could suppress prices during Peru's peak shipping months; a weather-driven shortfall could do the opposite, especially with North Carolina already dealing with a new pest problem.
This is a story worth revisiting as El Niño develops. Buyers with fall and winter blueberry programs tied to Peruvian supply should build some contingency into their volume commitments now rather than waiting for confirmed weather impacts.