The USDA's first official forecast for the 2026-27 Florida citrus season puts total orange production at 10 million boxes — 23% below last season's final figure. Early and mid-season varieties including Navels are forecast at 3 million boxes, a 37% drop from last year. Valencias are projected at 7 million boxes, down 14%. Grapefruit comes in at 1.3 million boxes, 4% lower, while lemon production is actually forecast 6% higher.
Florida's citrus industry has been in a long structural decline driven by citrus greening disease, acreage loss, and storm damage, and this season's numbers continue that trajectory. A 23% drop in oranges is significant for juice processors and fresh shippers alike, and the dramatic decline in early varieties signals a tight start to the fresh orange season. For buyers expecting Florida Navel programs or early grapefruit promotions, supply is going to be tighter and more expensive than last year.
Watch how California Navel supply interacts with Florida's shortfall this fall — buyers who planned around Florida volume may need to pivot their citrus programs earlier than expected. Texas grapefruit is also dealing with its own size issues this season, meaning the overall domestic citrus picture heading into winter is significantly constrained.