The U.S. Apple Association is projecting a 263-million-bushel harvest for 2026/27, down 7% year over year and 3% below the five-year average. Spring frost on the East Coast hit hard — Pennsylvania is down 58% and Virginia 48%. Washington state continues to carry the national crop with 176 million bushels.
The volume drop matters, but margin pressure may matter more. Labor already accounts for roughly 60% of orchard production costs, and prices paid to growers have been at or below break-even across multiple marketing windows. Meanwhile, the shift away from Red Delicious and Gala toward Honeycrisp, Cosmic Crisp, and Pink Lady is accelerating — old-guard volume varieties are shrinking.
Watch how the East Coast shortfall ripples into fall retail promotions. With Mexico and Canada representing 58% of U.S. apple export volume — and shipments to both up double digits — cross-border trade flow will be worth monitoring closely heading into the holiday stretch.