With Peru's avocado harvest in full swing and California volumes increasing, overall supply is described as adequate — but the drop in Mexican shipments is creating real complications. Industry sources say the situation is becoming more complex, and appears to be happening earlier in the season than many expected.
This is a meaningful update to the avocado supply story: while force majeure declarations from Mission and Westfalia signaled a crisis weeks ago, the market is now partially adjusting with alternative origins stepping in. The dynamic is shifting from pure shortage to a more complicated multi-origin sourcing environment.
Worth monitoring whether Peru and California can sustain the volume needed to keep retail shelves full and pricing manageable. The transition to Mexico's Loca season in July remains the key inflection point to watch.