Mexico's new avocado season is underway, with volumes expected to be similar to last year or slightly smaller — which was the strongest season in five years. Industry participants are hopeful the crop translates into price stability through April, which would give retailers more confidence to build promotions and longer-term programs around the fruit.
But the previous season offered a cautionary tale. Despite expectations of ample supply, an unexpected price spike during summer disrupted the market for five to six weeks — the cause still isn't fully understood. That episode made it harder for buyers to plan, and the industry is still working toward more program-based purchasing rather than week-to-week spot buying.
More Mexican volume in the market could also reduce space for Peruvian avocados in the U.S. Buyers managing dual-origin programs should watch how the Mexican crop develops through October. If early volumes come in strong and pricing holds, promotional windows could open up sooner than last year.