Peruvian exporter Agrocitrus is warning that El Niño conditions forecast for late 2026 and early 2027 could reduce Tahiti lime production by as much as 40 percent. The company says high temperatures and projected rainfall will impact flowering, productivity, and logistics across the sector.
Peru is a meaningful supplier of Tahiti limes to international markets, and a 40% production cut would be a significant supply shock. Limes are already a volatile commodity in North America given dependence on Mexican supply, and any Peruvian reduction tightens the overall global supply picture heading into a period when foodservice demand for limes tends to be strong.
Buyers sourcing limes from South America should watch how El Niño conditions develop over the next several months. If the forecasts hold, program pricing and availability could shift meaningfully by Q1 2027.