A new RaboResearch report warns that El Niño is expected to significantly increase avocado supply variability during the 2026/27 season. Rather than causing a uniform global shortfall, the climate pattern will unevenly affect yields, fruit size, and quality across key producing regions, making supply forecasting harder than usual. Global avocado exports continue to expand overall, but market conditions and pricing are expected to remain volatile.
This adds a new layer of complexity to an already unsettled avocado market. California's domestic crop is locked in around 330 million pounds, Brazilian Hass production is on track for a record, and imported volumes continue to pressure U.S. growers on margins. El Niño layering in regional variability on top of that structural oversupply dynamic creates a market where buyers could face unexpected tightness in specific origins or size profiles even as global volumes stay high.
Watch for shifts in sizing and quality from Mexico and Peru specifically, as those are the dominant import origins for the U.S. market. Supply availability could look fine on paper while actual usable fruit — in the right sizes and condition — becomes harder to source consistently.